China’s agricultural sector is entering a new era of self-reliance that will ripple across global trade, and Thailand is being urged to prepare for the consequences. Nantapong Jiralertpong, Director of the Office of Trade Policy and Strategy at the Ministry of Commerce, explained that China’s grain and meat production has reached record highs. In 2025, total grain output hit 715 million tons, while meat production surpassed 100 million tons for the first time.

This surge has already led to steep declines in imports, with corn down 80.6 percent and wheat down 64.4 percent. At the same time, China is expanding exports of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products, underscoring its drive toward food independence and global competitiveness.

Thailand’s traditional exports such as rice and sugar are now under pressure. China expects rice imports to fall by an average of 9.1 percent annually, dropping to just 0.95 million tons in 2035, while domestic production rises. Sugar imports are also projected to decline to around 4 million tons by 2035. This shift could intensify competition for Thai rice and sugar in the global market.

Yet within this disruption lies opportunity. Nantapong pointed out that fruit consumption in China is expected to grow by 1.2 percent annually, reaching 369 million tons in 2035. This creates demand for premium fruits and processed products that emphasize quality. Meat and aquatic imports are also projected to rise. Poultry imports could reach 1.27 million tons in 2035, growing at 2.4 percent annually, while fishery and aquatic products are expected to expand by 1.6 percent annually to 8.08 million tons. Shrimp and processed seafood stand out as categories where Thailand can capture market share.

The Ministry advises Thai exporters to accelerate quality improvements, build stronger brands, and diversify markets to reduce reliance on China. Urbanization and rising incomes are reshaping consumer preferences, with processed foods and health-oriented products gaining traction. By 2035, China’s urban population is expected to reach 75 percent, with incomes rising at 4.3 percent annually in cities and 6.5 percent in rural areas. Exporters who understand these shifts and tailor products to regional tastes will be best positioned to thrive.

The next decade will test Thailand’s agricultural agility. Success will depend on balancing traditional strengths with innovation, while closely monitoring China’s food security policies. The question that lingers is whether Thailand can reinvent its agricultural exports quickly enough to remain indispensable in China’s evolving food economy.