Thailand’s Artificial Intelligence Gamble in the US–China AI Divide

Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has drawn a clear line between geopolitics and trade, insisting that Washington’s demands for allies to “choose sides” in the escalating artificial intelligence rivalry with China will not derail Bangkok’s tariff negotiations with the United States. His remarks underscore a broader challenge facing mid‑sized economies, that is how to navigate the collision of technology, security, and commerce without being forced into binary choices.

Anutin emphasized that tariff talks remain a separate track, shaped by economic conditions and mutual interests rather than military exercises or AI frameworks. “We must examine what ‘choosing sides’ truly means, and at what level a country is considered to have taken sides,” he said, signaling Thailand’s intent to retain strategic flexibility. The Foreign Ministry echoed this stance, noting that Thailand has not received any formal communication demanding alignment and that AI cooperation remains an open field requiring careful study.

Behind the scenes, however, Washington is preparing a sharper message. According to reports, the US State Department has drafted letters to dozens of countries, warning that participation in both American and Chinese AI initiatives would be untenable. The Pax Silica framework, launched last year, seeks to secure supply chains for semiconductors, AI models, and critical minerals. Membership is framed not as symbolic but as a commitment, with US officials cautioning that “you can’t have it both ways.” China, meanwhile, has unveiled its own “World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organisation,” promoting open‑weight AI models as a counterbalance to US‑led proprietary systems.

The stakes are high. AI is no longer just a technological frontier; it is a lever of economic power and military capability. The exponential growth of AI systems, including autonomous hacking tools, has heightened global anxieties about control and access. For countries like Thailand, the calculus is complex: joining one camp could secure investment and supply chains, but risk alienating another major partner. Remaining neutral preserves flexibility but may limit access to cutting‑edge resources.

Kazakhstan’s dual participation in both Pax Silica and China’s coalition illustrates the tension. For Washington, such duality undermines trust; for smaller economies, it reflects pragmatic hedging. As the US and China accelerate their race for AI dominance, nations caught in the middle must weigh sovereignty against dependency, and long‑term strategic positioning against short‑term economic gains.

Thailand’s insistence that tariff negotiations remain insulated from AI geopolitics is both a defensive maneuver and a statement of principle. It reflects a desire to compartmentalize issues in an era when technology, trade, and security are increasingly intertwined. Whether this separation can hold as pressure mounts will be a test not only of Thailand’s diplomatic agility but of the broader ability of nations to resist being subsumed into a binary technological order.